UFC 313 Shocker: Pereira vs Ankalaev Odds & Favorites – What the MMA World is Saying?

UFC 313 is set to light up Las Vegas on Saturday, March 8 at the T-Mobile Arena. This pay-per-view features a stacked card headlined by Alex Pereira vs. Magomed Ankalaev for the light heavyweight title, with a thrilling co-main event to boot. Fans are buzzing about the surprise betting odds and storylines – the reigning champ opened as an underdog, and the matchup has become a virtual toss-up. Who is the favorite on this explosive main card, and what are experts and fighters saying about it? Let’s dive into the odds, analysis, and hype surrounding UFC 313.

Main Event: Alex Pereira vs. Magomed Ankalaev – Light Heavyweight Title Showdown

The main event of UFC 313 features Alex Pereira defending his light heavyweight crown against Magomed Ankalaev in a clash that has the MMA world riveted. This fight was finally booked to settle a fierce rivalry between the Brazilian knockout artist and the Russian powerhouse. Pereira comes in on a five-fight win streak, most recently a dramatic comeback TKO over Khalil Rountree Jr., and all of his title wins have been by knockout. Ankalaev, unbeaten in his last 13 bouts (with only a draw blemishing his record), has long awaited his title shot and earned it with a dominant decision win in his last outing. With Pereira’s one-punch KO power and Ankalaev’s well-rounded skill set, many expect this championship battle to deliver fireworks.

The betting odds for this main event have swung and even surprised many observers. Opening odds had Ankalaev as a slight favorite, but heavy action on the champion quickly tightened the line to essentially a pick’em. As of fight week, Pereira is actually a slight favorite at roughly -115, with Ankalaev at about -105. In other words, the oddsmakers see this fight as nearly dead even, and for good reason – even their physical stats are nearly identical, aside from Ankalaev being five years younger. UFC veteran Anthony Smith was stunned to see Ankalaev favored at all early on, noting that Ankalaev himself vowed not to wrestle and asking, “Is there anybody you’d favor in a striking match versus Pereira?” Analysts agree this matchup is razor-close, calling the coin-flip odds accurate given both fighters’ talent. In short, Pereira vs. Ankalaev is as evenly matched as it gets – with a slight edge to the champ – making this title showdown incredibly compelling.

Co-Main Event: Justin Gaethje vs. Rafael Fiziev – Lightweight Fireworks Rematch

The co-main event underwent a late shake-up but might steal the show. Originally slated to face Dan Hooker, Justin Gaethje now meets Rafael Fiziev in a three-round rematch after Hooker withdrew with a hand injury. Gaethje and Fiziev first clashed in an absolute barnburner at UFC 286, which Gaethje won by majority decision in a Fight of the Year contender. This time, the tables have turned at the sportsbooks – Gaethje surprisingly opened as a +125 underdog despite winning their first encounter, with Fiziev the favorite around -145. Many were caught off guard by Fiziev being favored, but the oddsmakers are respecting the Muay Thai specialist’s skill set and perhaps Gaethje’s recent struggles. Fans and pundits expect nothing short of all-out action again when these two strikers collide, with Gaethje’s wild power and Fiziev’s relentless pressure promising pure violence.

Circumstances leading into this rematch add extra intrigue. Gaethje is coming off a brutal knockout loss to Max Holloway in April 2024 (which cost him the symbolic “BMF” belt), and he’s an even 3-3 in his last six fights. Fiziev, on the other hand, hasn’t fought since suffering a knee injury in late 2023, so ring rust could be a factor. It’s a classic case of Gaethje looking to rebound and prove he’s still an elite lightweight, while Fiziev aims to capitalize on this huge opportunity after a long layoff. Despite Gaethje’s setback, this matchup is extremely competitive – the odds are still fairly close, with Fiziev only a slight favorite. The MMA world is eager to see if Gaethje can replicate his past success or if Fiziev will adjust and emerge on top. Either way, this rematch promises fireworks and is a strong candidate for Fight of the Night on a card already stacked with excitement.

Main Event & Co-Main Event Odds at a Glance:

(Odds accurate as of fight week; slight shifts possible by fight night.)

Other Main Card Bouts to Watch

Beyond the headline attractions, UFC 313’s main card is filled with intriguing matchups. In women’s strawweight action, former title challenger Amanda Lemos takes on rising contender Iasmin Lucindo in a pivotal clash. Additionally, lightweight finishers Jalin Turner and Ignacio Bahamondes will go head-to-head in what could be an explosive bout – Turner is eager to snap a recent skid, while Bahamondes enters with momentum after two straight knockout wins. Fan-favorite veteran Bobby “King” Green also returns, facing hot prospect Maurício Ruffy in a matchup of experience vs. youth. Rounding out the main card, heavyweight contender Curtis Blaydes meets newcomer Rizvan Kuniev in a classic striker vs. grappler showdown. From top to bottom, the event is stacked with talent, and any of these fights could deliver show-stealing moments.

MMA World Buzz and Predictions

The consensus among many analysts is that UFC 313 is too close to call at the top. With the main event essentially even money and the co-main a toss-up despite a former interim champ in the mix, this card is a bettor’s dream and a fan’s delight. Media outlets and fighters have been chiming in on these matchups – some pointing to Pereira’s championship experience, others noting Ankalaev’s well-rounded game; some backing Gaethje’s highlight-reel power, others favoring Fiziev’s technique and youth. One thing is certain: UFC 313 has everyone talking, and it could produce major shockwaves in multiple divisions.

In summary, UFC 313 offers a bit of everything – a grudge-match title fight with pick’em odds, a red-hot rematch in the co-main, and a slate of fan-friendly fights on the undercard. The favorites are only barely favored, the underdogs are live, and the MMA community is split, which sets the stage for an unpredictable night. Will Alex Pereira reaffirm his dominance, or can Magomed Ankalaev finally grab UFC gold? Will Justin Gaethje turn back the clock, or will Rafael Fiziev make a statement in their redux? All will be answered on March 8 in Las Vegas. Don’t blink on fight night – upsets and explosive finishes could be just one punch away.